30 Jan Navigating Uncertainty: What HVAC Business Owners Need to Know in 2025
Kyle Griffith, CBI, CMAP– The NYBB Group
As an M&A advisor specializing in the HVAC sector, I’ve helped many HVAC business owners with their company sale and acquisition objectives. The current regulatory and financial landscape is unlike anything we’ve seen before. Recent policy changes are creating both challenges and opportunities for HVAC business owners, especially those considering an exit.
If you’ve considered selling your business, now is the time to act. The regulatory freeze under the Trump administration and paused Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding are reshaping the market in ways that could directly impact your company’s valuation and future prospects. This is not a time for hesitation, but for strategic planning and swift decisions.
Regulatory Uncertainty & Refrigerant Transition
🚨 Regulatory Freeze: The administration has paused the enforcement of new and pending regulations, including EPA refrigerant rules. This puts businesses that already invested in compliance efforts in limbo.
🌡️ Refrigerant Transition on Hold: The shift toward lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants—initially set for January 2025—is now uncertain. Companies that stock up on new systems may face unexpected financial setbacks, as they might have to bear the cost of disposing of or repurposing these systems if the transition is delayed or canceled.
Financial & Market Impacts
💰 IRA Funding on Pause: Many HVAC businesses relied on IRA incentives for energy-efficient installations, but funding has now been halted, affecting demand for new systems.
📈 Potential Cost Increases: If refrigerant regulations are implemented, businesses could see a significant 30% rise in equipment costs, which would undoubtedly increase financial strain. This is a stark reality that HVAC business owners need to be prepared for.
⚖️ State vs. Federal Divergence: While federal policies are shifting, many states are tightening their own electrification and energy efficiency laws. This divergence can create a complex regulatory landscape for business owners operating in multiple states, requiring them to stay agile in adapting to different regulations and potentially increasing their compliance costs.
What This Means for HVAC Business Owners Considering an Exit
If you’re thinking about selling, here’s what you should do now:
✅ Get a Business Valuation: Uncertainty impacts business valuations. Know where you stand so you can make informed decisions.
✅ Review Your Financials: Buyers want businesses with strong financials. Now is the time to ensure clean books and optimize your bottom line.
✅ Plan for Market Shifts: Understand how these regulatory changes could affect demand, costs, and future buyer interest.
✅ Be Ready to Move Quickly: The HVAC industry remains essential, and strategic buyers and private equity groups are still looking for quality businesses. Those prepared will be in the best position to exit at maximum value.
Final Thoughts
Despite the uncertainty, demand for HVAC services isn’t going anywhere. The key is resilience and readiness. The HVAC industry has proven its resilience time and again, and with the right strategies, your business can weather these changes. Whether you plan to sell in the next 6 months or 5 years, taking action now will position you for a more substantial exit when the time is right.
📩 If you’d like to discuss how these changes may impact your business and explore your options, feel free to reach out. Let’s talk confidentially. https://hihello.me/hi/meetkyle
What’s your take on the current HVAC landscape? Please comment—I’d love to hear your insights!